Unfortunately I will not be posting votes or updates again this year. A winter of family health issues, and a move (both my father, John, for those of you who know him -- he is fine now) have left me with too much to catch up on in my own life and work to manage the site.

From what I hear the ice on Canoe Lake is already starting to go (the north end is fairly clear today) and it should be completely out well before the end of this week.

Fingers crossed for an uneventful winter, and the return of Canoe Lake Ice-out in the spring of 2016!

I had word from Hugh Statten (via Roy Stewart) that the ice went out on Friday, so I'm calling it for May 2, 2014!

I had an email from Holly and Roy Stewart on Sunday: "About 3" of slush over 3" solid but quickly candling ice." They sent this photo, from the beach of the P-Store bay...

Canoe Lake, looking north west from the P-Store beach on Sunday, April 27th, 2014. Photo by Roy & Holly Stewart. (Click the image for a larger version.)

And Gord over at Algonquin Outfitters posted a quick update yesterday saying "Lake of Two Rivers: big split down the middle, black ice, likely will open within the next couple of days. Smoke Lake: looking very black but only open around the edges."

I think we'll miss a record-late ice-out (May 8th) by less than a week.

I don't see the ice going out before May, and it's possible we'll be flirting with the record-late date of May 8th.

Now, where did I put that shovel and scraper...

I've been hit with a perfect storm of work, travel, a wedding (not mine :-), some more travel... and did I mention travel? Something just had to give...

I'll try to post if I learn anything; and keep the emails coming - I'll review them once the ice goes out and let you know who got it right.

Happy ice-free trails everyone!

It looks like 2014 is going to be a repeat of 2013 - and not just because I'm getting a late start to tracking ice out :-) At roughly this time last year I was lamenting a long, lingering winter: "Snow in Toronto on March 21st?!? Sub-zero temps on Canoe Lake, with no real March warm spell to speak of?" I think the winter of 2013/2014 was worse than last year (ice storm!) - but we seem to be in almost exactly the same situation.

So for now I think it's safe to assume ice out will be in the neighbourhood of the historical average of April 28th.

Congrats also to: Steve Soloduka, Hugh Statten, Lorne Wilkinson, Dick Erickson.

Here are two photos from Roy Stewart taken from his point looking north two days ago.

Canoe Lake, looking north from Stewart's point
Sunday, April 28th, 2013

Canoe Lake, Stewart's point under water!
Sunday, April 28th, 2013

"Well here I sit, hoping to be on the lake for a fourth year in a row when the ice goes out but I don't think I'll make it. There are open patches of water on Tea Lake and Smoke is dark black, ready to go out any day but Canoe may be a day behind those two. The water level is very high ... and there are massive cracks in the ice and water at the shore. The ice has disintegrated and all it needs is a lot of wind, rain or sun to disappear. As we won't have enough of any of those for a while, it will be a few days yet but this week for sure."

And the official Algonquin Park Ice Out Conditions page said today that they expect ice out in the next 5-10 days. Head on over to the site for details, including some great arial photos.

Here's a photo of the Portage Store bay on Canoe lake just 4 days ago (from the Friends of Algonquin Park Facebook page).

Canoe Lake, looking north westthe P-Store beach
Sunday, April 7th, 2013. Photo by the Friends of Algonquin Park.

Looks like we've got a most popular date: Thursday, May 2nd. More than 50% of people so far think the ice will go out during the 7 days from April 26th through May 2nd; and 90% think it will be out by at least May 3rd.

I heard from two Canoe Lakers who were up on Easter weekend (just 7 days ago!) and reported between 25" and 30" of solid ice; and it was something like -13°C on Tuesday night.

I'm going with May 8th, mostly for posterity ;-)

The current weather forecast for the coming week at the East gate shows -13°C, -14°C, and -11°C for this coming Tue, Wed, and Thu night - ouch!

Gord has "a quick update from the North" over on the Algonquin Outfitters blog.

My intrepid reporter, Charlie Plant, left Canoe Lake Monday evening, and I have not heard from anyone who has been on site since then. Gordon over at Algonquin Outfitters seems to be in the same state of limbo, peering through cloud cover in satellite photos while he waits for an on-site report :-)

Anyone got any news?

The aforementioned Charlie Plant sent me a second email and photo from Canoe Lake around noon today, and it's pretty definitive:

"I went down to the camp and was pleased to see that the ice is completely gone from the north end of the lake. From my estimation the ice is gone from 99% of the lake. There is the remainder that blocks our bay in the south and then there is the strange case of the P-Store bay. There is ice in about half of the bay but as the picture shows, there is a rather formidable ice bridge that blocks the entrance to the bay. There is open water behind the bridge but it is large enough that no boats can get through. That means that anyone could get to their place if they left from the camp but no one could get to their cottage if they tried to leave from the P-Store. Thus the lake is completely open but not easily accessible."

Canoe Lake, looking north from near the P-Store point
Monday, March 26th, 2012. Photo by Charlie Plant

From what I see in the photo there is a strong north wind that has pushed the remaining ice into the P-Store bay (and probably into the river down to Bonita as well). This is pretty typical. The important thing is that the vast majority of the lake is visibly open.

So what is the asterisk? Well, it's the forecast. Right now we are looking at -12°C tonight with a wind chill of -17°C, and below zero every night this week. So there is a small possibility that the lake will freeze over again, assuming the wind drops way off over night. And as Charlie pointed out, that could mean two ice-out dates in one year!

I'll have another update tomorrow if I can get another on-site report. For now, all I can say is...

...wow!

"What a beautiful day here on Canoe Lake. It is sunny out but the temperature has plummeted to -10°C. The wind has been blowing like stink for the last 18 hours and it has wreacked havoc with the ice. From what I can tell the ice has gone from 90% of the lake leaving the last of it down in our bay. I'll go over to the P-Store later to see if it is clear yet but I think we may just have a new record here."

Canoe Lake ice, looking west - Monday, March 26th, 2012.
Photo by Charlie Plant

I also got emails from Roy Stewart and Bob Gibson yesterday both saying they thought the ice would go out this week, earlier or later depending on the effect of the very cold temperatures forecast for tonight.

I'm waiting for another report from Charlie, but it's starting to look like we might see a new record with a March ice-out this year.

And I have quickly combed the dates submitted for the ones that fall in the next week and got them posted up on the predictions page. More dates coming.