Another year off :-(

Greetings Canoe Lake ice-out followers!

Unfortunately I will not be posting votes or updates again this year. A winter of family health issues, and a move (both my father, John, for those of you who know him -- he is fine now) have left me with too much to catch up on in my own life and work to manage the site.

From what I hear the ice on Canoe Lake is already starting to go (the north end is fairly clear today) and it should be completely out well before the end of this week.

Fingers crossed for an uneventful winter, and the return of Canoe Lake Ice-out in the spring of 2016!

Ice is out!

The Algonquin Park ice out conditions page confirms today that the ice is out on all small and medium sized lakes in the Park, including Canoe Lake.

I had word from Hugh Statten (via Roy Stewart) that the ice went out on Friday, so I'm calling it for May 2, 2014!

Looks like we're getting close

I think we may be getting close to ice-out -- possibly this weekend. Things are loosening up and there's a lot of rain and wind in the forecast for the next week.

I had an email from Holly and Roy Stewart on Sunday: "About 3" of slush over 3" solid but quickly candling ice." They sent this photo, from the beach of the P-Store bay...

Canoe Lake, looking north west from the P-Store beach on Sunday, April 27th, 2014. Photo by Roy & Holly Stewart. (Click the image for a larger version.)

And Gord over at Algonquin Outfitters posted a quick update yesterday saying "Lake of Two Rivers: big split down the middle, black ice, likely will open within the next couple of days. Smoke Lake: looking very black but only open around the edges."

I think we'll miss a record-late ice-out (May 8th) by less than a week.

Winter's back!

Just lovely! Over 20°C yesterday, and then a blizzard and well below zero tonight - and that's in Toronto!

I don't see the ice going out before May, and it's possible we'll be flirting with the record-late date of May 8th.

Now, where did I put that shovel and scraper...

Not posting votes this year :-(

I just wanted to drop in and say that although I am following things up north, and receiving everyone's date guesses, I am not going to be able to post much this year.

I've been hit with a perfect storm of work, travel, a wedding (not mine :-), some more travel... and did I mention travel? Something just had to give...

I'll try to post if I learn anything; and keep the emails coming - I'll review them once the ice goes out and let you know who got it right.

Happy ice-free trails everyone!

Déjà Vu All Over Again

Welcome to Canoe Lake Ice Out 2014!

It looks like 2014 is going to be a repeat of 2013 - and not just because I'm getting a late start to tracking ice out :-) At roughly this time last year I was lamenting a long, lingering winter: "Snow in Toronto on March 21st?!? Sub-zero temps on Canoe Lake, with no real March warm spell to speak of?" I think the winter of 2013/2014 was worse than last year (ice storm!) - but we seem to be in almost exactly the same situation.

So for now I think it's safe to assume ice out will be in the neighbourhood of the historical average of April 28th.

The ice is out!

According to reliable sources on Canoe Lake the ice went out yesterday - April 29th, 2013 - which is a great date for two reasons: it's my niece B's birthday (and she loves the cottage), and our winner this year is my wonderful wife, Debbie Ridpath Ohi!

Congrats also to: Steve Soloduka, Hugh Statten, Lorne Wilkinson, Dick Erickson.

Here are two photos from Roy Stewart taken from his point looking north two days ago.

Canoe Lake, looking north from Stewart's point
Sunday, April 28th, 2013

Canoe Lake, Stewart's point under water!
Sunday, April 28th, 2013

Ice may go out this week! (Apr 29 - May 3)

Looks like ice-out is underway. I got the following email from Canoe Laker Charlie Plant yesterday:

"Well here I sit, hoping to be on the lake for a fourth year in a row when the ice goes out but I don't think I'll make it. There are open patches of water on Tea Lake and Smoke is dark black, ready to go out any day but Canoe may be a day behind those two. The water level is very high ... and there are massive cracks in the ice and water at the shore. The ice has disintegrated and all it needs is a lot of wind, rain or sun to disappear. As we won't have enough of any of those for a while, it will be a few days yet but this week for sure."

And the official Algonquin Park Ice Out Conditions page said today that they expect ice out in the next 5-10 days. Head on over to the site for details, including some great arial photos.

Shoveling the driveway...

No, that's not a euphemism, it's what I did today at home in Toronto.

Here's a photo of the Portage Store bay on Canoe lake just 4 days ago (from the Friends of Algonquin Park Facebook page).

Canoe Lake, looking north westthe P-Store beach
Sunday, April 7th, 2013. Photo by the Friends of Algonquin Park.

First batch of votes is up

I have finally combed through my email and posted the first batch of votes, 66 in total.

Looks like we've got a most popular date: Thursday, May 2nd. More than 50% of people so far think the ice will go out during the 7 days from April 26th through May 2nd; and 90% think it will be out by at least May 3rd.

I heard from two Canoe Lakers who were up on Easter weekend (just 7 days ago!) and reported between 25" and 30" of solid ice; and it was something like -13°C on Tuesday night.

I'm going with May 8th, mostly for posterity ;-)


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  • 2013 Predictions!

  • To make a prediction just send your date to Jeff by email at 'iceout' + '@' + ''

    See what dates people chose in past years.

  • 2014 (May 2nd)
  • 2013 (April 29th)
  • 2012 (March 26th)
  • 2011 (April 29th)
  • 2010 (April 3rd)
  • 2009 (April 24th)
  • 2008 (April 25th)

Historical Sites & Data

    Here is a table and graph of all the ice-out dates since 1989 (plus one very old data point for 1953!)

    In 2008 this site was converted to a blog format, so historical posts are now available via the archives. Previous sites have been preserved here for posterity...

  • 2007 (April 22nd)
  • 2006 (April 20th)
  • 2005 (April 28th)
  • 2004 (April 22nd)
  • 2003 (April 23rd)
  • 2002 (April 19th)
  • 2001 (April 23rd)
  • 2000 (April 26th)
  • 1999 (April 20th)

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